Pazz & Jop predictions thread

[koganbot]

I really have no clue this year. Remember that last year "Rehab" beat "Umbrella," so these people are not to be trusted, but also it was clear that the four tracks likely to compete were going to be "Umbrella," "All My Friends," "Paper Planes," and "Rehab" (which was the order they finished on Idolator).

Anyway, being clueless, I think Santogold could win both album and single, but then I also think Beyoncé could win single, since she always polls high in that category (though I don't like either "Single Ladies" or "If I Were A Boy" as much as "Crazy In Love" and "Baby Boy"). As for albums, something awful like Fleet Foxes or something that I'm ignoring like TV On The Radio will probably place high, and beyond that I can't think of any. Well, Kanye will place, but I don't know where. Scooter won't place. I really don't know about Ne-Yo - not top 10, I don't think. Vampire Weekend? As for singles that do well on poptimists, "Closer" could get in the top 20, "No Air" I don't know, probably top 40. "American Boy" will do reasonably well, "Wearing My Rolex" will probably be lucky to get top 40. "A&E" will do well. Lil Wayne is the wild card, since his album ought to place top 5, and I'd guess the same for "A Milli," but I really don't know. There's probably some mainstream respectable prestige item like last year's Plant & Krauss that I'm not remembering. And a lot that have slipped my mind.

Comments

[koganbot]

Very few, I'd think, but some (like Xgau) might have been jogged but its airplay this year to consider voting for it now. This'll be counteracted by the voters who consider it last year's news.

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

Yeah - my question in these cases is generally "so why didn't you vote for it last year?"; with tracks like 'What's It Gonna Be?', which was only known within its tiny scene in 2007, 2008 votes are understandable, but MIA is such big news in the critical community that voting for her now seems...disingenuous, in a way? It just feels like 'Paper Planes' is unnecessarily taking up space which something else could be using.

[chuckeddy.livejournal.com]

I don't understand Lex's logic here at all. They didn't vote for "Paper Planes" last year because, uh, it wasn't EVERYWHERE last year like it was this year. And maybe the more they heard it, the more it became part of the bigger world out there, the btter it sounded. I dunno, I didn't vote for it *either* year, but in 2008 (when it actually *felt* like a single, and *mattered* like a single) I act least *considered* voting for it this year. (And I voted for Kid Rock's "All Summer Long" this year, even though it was on an album I voted for in 2007. Though I don't think it was actually a single until 2008.) (By the way, *was* "Paper Planes" an actual single in 2007? I'm assuming it was, since it finished so high last year, but if it was a single last year, I never noticed. And the way people vote for random album tracks these days -- an eternal pet peeve of mine, but I'm an old fart, sorry -- maybe it wasn't.)

I think either "Paper Planes" or "A Milli" will win singles, and either Lil Wayne or TV on the Radio will win albums. (Though I guess Kanye also has a shot for the latter, not that I would have guessed that even a few weeks ago, before I started seeing end-of-year lists. Still think he's a longshot.)

[freakytigger.livejournal.com]

Paper Planes had an official video made for it by the time I ran the Poptimists Top 40 at the start of last January, whether or not it had been released 'as a single' then I dunno. My comment at the time of last poll was "Another surefire Top 95 hit for MIA!" which somewhat underestimated the power of film trailers.

It feels like an 07 thing for me too, because I listened to the album so much last year. But it also feels like an album track, so 'feels like' doesn't matter much for me. Agree that its wider cultural impact has definitely been this year.

I think year-of-impact is getting increasingly smeared anyway: I've seen the Robyn album on a lot of lists this year.

[chuckeddy.livejournal.com]

You're seeing it on lists because Robyn was literally released in the U.S. in 2008 (which was the first year that I, and lots of other U.S. critics I'm sure, actually heard it.)

Lost in the mail

[koganbot]

Xhuxk, I sent you the 2005 version of the Robyn album back in 2005!

Robyn's "Be Mine!" also went top 40 this year in Britain, for the first time. (So did Robyn's "Who's That Girl," which I actually voted for.)

Re: Lost in the mail

[lockedintheatti.livejournal.com]

I find it very bizarre that album has been live for four years now, I can't think of any other album that's ever done that

Re: Lost in the mail

[chuckeddy.livejournal.com]

Frank is right about him sending me an earlier version of the Robyn album three years ago (as I remembered as soon as I left the house this morning, after I'd typed that comment above.) I didn't listen to it much then, though. And when it came in the mail early this year, it still *seemed* current. And *other* U.S. critics no doubt heard it for the first time this year. (Bottom line is, if you like something enough, and listen to it enough, you're perfectly justified in using whatever excuse you can to consider it current enough for your top ten, if you want it to be there.) (I didn't think Robyn was good enough, though I did like it. If I'd liked it more, I would have had no qualms voting for it, despite Frank's old CD burn version.)

[chuckeddy.livejournal.com]

I mean, actually hearing "Paper Planes" on the radio -- especially in mid-America, plane-flyover country -- certainly puts it in a different context. How is that not obvious? And I think it's really possible that the radio (and movie) play may have endeared the song to certain, say, middlebrow daily paper (plane) rock critics, and maybe also a few hip-hop critics, who never would have considered voting for M.I.A. before (and, shocker, might not have ever even paid attention to her.)

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

I think I'm overestimating the extent to which critics live in a bubble of critic-music, really! Among critics and hipster types, 'Paper Planes' was already "everywhere" in 2007 (by which I mean in conversations, on blogs, in clubs, on our ipods). The frequency with which I randomly encountered it in the wild actually decreased as it climbed the chart. (Obv, I understand that most people don't live in this bubble, but I assumed most critics did, certainly to the extent that 'Paper Planes' would have had its impact on them in 07.)

[chuckeddy.livejournal.com]

I don't go to clubs (though I do like bars on occasion), don't own an ipod, don't remember having a single conversation or reading a single blog entry about "Paper Planes" in 2007 (at least in part because I avoided reading M.I.A. conversations in general, which I assumed would bore me.) Did think it was a standout album track on *Kala*, though. But again, not until 2008 did it strike me as anything like a single (even if it technically was one by the time 2007 ended -- which, if there was a promotional video, I'd say it probably was.)

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it was definitely an 07 single - I actually bought a couple of the remixes off itunes when it came out. My Kala stand-outs are still 'Bamboo Banga' and 'Hussel'.

[chuckeddy.livejournal.com]

Plus, I think it's possible (and perfectly legit) if, even for some critics who *may* have found "Paper Planes" ubiquitous in crit/hipster circles in '07, they may have thought the song was validated as a single by reaching so many people *outside* of crit/hipster circles in '08. (I sort of felt that way myself -- when I heard it coming out of my Wu Tang-fan kid's computer this summer, I knew M.I.A. had arrived, somehow.)

[koganbot]

And of course it's also legitimate to change one's mind after hearing something an extra 50 times (or even not having heard it an extra 50 times). I rated "Outta My Head (Ay Ya Ya)" number 20 on my 2007 singles list and put it number 2 on this year's Pazz & Jop.

[koganbot]

I almost voted for "Be Mine!" this year which was my number 12 or so single of 2005, given that it finally hit in a place where English was the native language. But eventually I decided it was taking up space that needed to go to someone with a penis (V.I.C., in this instance).

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

Every year Robyn has been released, I have hated it a bit more. Though I'm not sure if there's actually any room to go at this point so she'd better not re-release it in 09!