Pazz & Jop predictions thread

[koganbot]

I really have no clue this year. Remember that last year "Rehab" beat "Umbrella," so these people are not to be trusted, but also it was clear that the four tracks likely to compete were going to be "Umbrella," "All My Friends," "Paper Planes," and "Rehab" (which was the order they finished on Idolator).

Anyway, being clueless, I think Santogold could win both album and single, but then I also think Beyoncé could win single, since she always polls high in that category (though I don't like either "Single Ladies" or "If I Were A Boy" as much as "Crazy In Love" and "Baby Boy"). As for albums, something awful like Fleet Foxes or something that I'm ignoring like TV On The Radio will probably place high, and beyond that I can't think of any. Well, Kanye will place, but I don't know where. Scooter won't place. I really don't know about Ne-Yo - not top 10, I don't think. Vampire Weekend? As for singles that do well on poptimists, "Closer" could get in the top 20, "No Air" I don't know, probably top 40. "American Boy" will do reasonably well, "Wearing My Rolex" will probably be lucky to get top 40. "A&E" will do well. Lil Wayne is the wild card, since his album ought to place top 5, and I'd guess the same for "A Milli," but I really don't know. There's probably some mainstream respectable prestige item like last year's Plant & Krauss that I'm not remembering. And a lot that have slipped my mind.

Comments

[koganbot]

Oh yeah, Xhuxk thinks that "Paper Planes" might get enough votes (needs half of what it got last year) to qualify, with both years' votes getting combined, in which case it finishes in the top three if not number one. But I don't think it's going to get enough to qualify.

[freakytigger.livejournal.com]

What did it get last year?

I forgot to send in my ballot so that's one vote less for No Air and Rolex, among others.

When we had this conversation back in the summer I found myself persuaded by "A Milli" as potential winner. It'll be very close, your Santogold pick might not be a bad idea.

Were there any worthy Obama-referencing tracks out there that could pick up votes? That Nas one? Young Jeezy's "My President Is Black"? (This latter a lot less likely than the Nas. "Put On" will do well though, would have done better if its lyrics were more recession-oriented.)

[freakytigger.livejournal.com]

Santi won't win albums tho - TVOTR, Fleet Foxes, or Wayne, with Portishead in the top 5.

[lockedintheatti.livejournal.com]

I really don't get the Fleet Foxes obsession, they really are truly awful (and I like a lot of folk music. Hmm, perhaps that's why)

[chuckeddy.livejournal.com]

A couple months ago I would have said (and probably did say) that anybody who figured Tortoise-head I mean Porpoise-head I mean Portishead would finish Top Five in Pazz & Jop has serious delusions about their critical standing in the States -- they've really never been *that* big a deal, believe it or not; both their '94 debut and '97 followup placed # 14 (never knew that til now!), and I can't imagine why they'd suddenly turn into huger potatoes 11 years later. I really don't think most rock critics in the midwest have any idea who they are, or care (beyond their being one-time prog-Sade I mean trip-hop one-hit-wonders I mean.) But now I'm less sure of all that. Not sure why; I don't *think* they've placed all that high on most magazines' iternal poll lists so far, but it's not like I've been watching out for them, either. So who the hell knows.

[koganbot]

Top ten last year:

1. Amy Winehouse: "Rehab" (Universal) 97
2. Rihanna featuring Jay-Z: "Umbrella" (Def Jam) 93
3. LCD Soundsystem: "All My Friends" (DFA/EMI) 61
4. Feist: "1234" (Cherrytree/Interscope) 58
5. Justice: "D.A.N.C.E." (Ed Banger/Downtown/Vice) 53
6. M.I.A.: "Paper Planes" (XL/Interscope) 50
7. Kanye West: "Stronger" (Roc-A-Fella/Def Jam) 48
8. UGK featuring Outkast: "International Players Anthem" (Jive) 47
9. Peter Bjorn & John: "Young Folks" (Wichita/V2) 42
10. Battles: "Atlas" (Warp) 39

So it needs to get 25 voters picking it this year, which isn't a lot (out of approximately 450 voters, minus the 50 who voted it last year).

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

I wonder how many critics actually heard 'Paper Planes' for the first time this year.

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

I also wish that UK critics would get involved in this, or do something similar. (Not Rocktimists, jesus.)

[koganbot]

Very few, I'd think, but some (like Xgau) might have been jogged but its airplay this year to consider voting for it now. This'll be counteracted by the voters who consider it last year's news.

[piratemoggy.livejournal.com]

You shouldn't ignore TV on the Radio, Frank. It's actually very up your street, I think; same eclecticism as Ashlee and a similar warmth of despair.

My predictions would be 'No Air' rating highly and FOB getting something high in the albums. Not sure about the rest. I sort of fail at listening to popular music I think.

O WATE, WATE. Slipknot will do surprisingly well.

[koganbot]

Slipknot will do surprisingly well.

Given the people who vote in P&J, I'd say if Slipknot get in the Top 80 they would be doing surprisingly well.

I have the TVOTR alb from two years ago, and where it fell short was tunes and rocking and singing. But with your description of them in hand, I'll listen to it again.

[piratemoggy.livejournal.com]

'Dear Science' is a total departure. It's a beautiful, gospelly album (I think Lex would actually probably like it) and it is full of these beat-driven, pretty pieces of melancholy. I have some uploaded which I will find in a minute but particularly give 'Crying' a listen if you can. It's nothing like 'Return To Cookie Mountain' on most levels. More like 'Staring At The Sun' off the first EP insofar as more blues, less rock and yet also this album is the 'fuck it the world's ending, let's fall in love or something' rather than 'ohmygodkillyrself' which the other two sort of are. along with a lot of fucking.

Slipknot's new one is political and released at the right moment... I suspect it will do better than would be expected but perhaps not.

doh

[dubdobdee.livejournal.com]

just realised that for some years i have been confusing ann magnuson -- formerly of bongwater and the nyc art-performance scene -- with alison krauss, presumably bcz krauss is a bit like kramer, who was the brains behind bongwater

[koganbot]

Albums last year:

1. LCD Soundsystem: Sound of Silver (DFA/EMI) 1662 (141)
2. Radiohead: In Rainbows (Self Released) 1611 (148)
3. M.I.A.: Kala (XL/Interscope) 1611 (144)
4. Amy Winehouse: Back To Black (Universal) 1492 (131)
5. Arcade Fire: Neon Bible (Merge) 1212 (111)
6. Kanye West: Graduation (Roc-A-Fella/Def Jam) 913 (91)
7. Spoon: Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga (Merge) 785 (77)
8. Robert Plant and Alison Krauss: Raising Sand (Rounder) 759 (78)
9. Bruce Springsteen: Magic (Columbia) 747 (64)
10. The National: Boxer (Beggars Banquet) 743 (68)

[epicharmus.livejournal.com]

I stopped caring about Pazz & Jop a while back. I say this not as a boast--it makes me feel sad. It feels like its authority has been fatally undercut.

They sent me a P&J reminder this year, one day before the deadline. Funny because a) they didn't send me an initial P&J announcement and b) I haven't voted in three years.

The film and jazz poll features this year seemed a little ill-thought-out, at least compared to what I remember of them, so I'm not optimistic about P&J.

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

I wish Jackin' Pop hadn't stopped :(

[petronia.livejournal.com]

MGMT is going to get a look-in, surely. (I haven't bothered to figure out the band's self-(re)presentation, but there must be something odd about it, because all the descriptions of the album are bafflingly unrelated to what it actually is. The big singles are rave-inflected indielectropop like that Royksopp remix of The Knife, only - apparently - more mainstream palatable because it's not a Scandanavian woman singing in a weird voice.)

[petronia.livejournal.com]

Oh yeah, and Bon Iver!

My $5 bet is Laura Marling for top 40.

[bengraham.livejournal.com]

Good call on Bon Iver, the critics love him. And so do I!!

HEY POPTIMISTS!

[freakytigger.livejournal.com]

Do you want to hear a mumblecore cover of "Paper Planes"? Do you? Go on go on go on go on go on go on go on (http://www.paleyounggentlemen.com/Paper_Planes.mp3).

(Or, more sensibly, don't.)

Re: HEY POPTIMISTS!

[jel-bugle.livejournal.com]

I like it!

Is there really a genre called mumblecore?? That's great.

Re: HEY POPTIMISTS!

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

GRRRRRR why did you do that to an otherwise uneventful Thursday morning. Dynamite Hack grows a beard.

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

Oh Frank, apropos of nothing, do you (or anyone else who might see this) have mp3s of Katharine McPhee's 'Over It' and 'Open Toes' from a couple of years back? I love them both but my mp3s inexplicably disappeared from my hard drive.

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

I have "Open Toes," but don't know if I still have "Over It."

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

(Gah, can't find it...will get back to you tho)