P&J poll prediction thread, 2009

[koganbot]

The Voice's P&J issue comes out "the week of January 18th," but since magazines don't count days and weeks the same way we do, I'm not sure if that's next week or the week after. Anyhow, I'm starting this prediction thread because my ear's not been to the critical grindstone this year, hence I want to know what you think. I'd like to say that I have no idea what will win, but I do have an idea actually, and it's that the one prestige band that anyone is saying much about are Animal Collective; so I'll predict them to top both the albums and singles list, unless "Empire State Of Mind" runs stronger than I expect. Previous winner TVOTR had no album this year; multiple winner Kanye West had no album, either; multiple winner Bob Dylan had two albums, but they went remarkably unremarked. I believe that those two and the Animal Collective were the only three albums released this year, actually.

As for singles, "Poker Face" goes top five and "Bad Romance" goes top ten, or maybe it's the other way around (depends how many people got a chance to view the "Bad Romance" vid before they voted; personally, I find her voice grating on that track, though it did make my top hundred). I think "You Belong With Me" goes top ten, but I'm not fingering the critical wind well on it - am I overly pessimistic in not putting it top five or ridiculously optimistic in even thinking it's top twenty? "The Fear" goes top ten. And there are always two or three r&b or hip-hop tracks that achieve ubiquity and critical respectability, the way "Single Ladies" did last year, but I'm not actually hearing any except "Empire State Of Mind." (Pitbull? Seriously? Respectability? Pitbull?) Stuff that could land anywhere: "Boom Boom Pow," "I Gotta Feeling," "My Life Would Suck Without You," "She Wolf," "Please Don't Leave Me," "3," "Russian Roulette." I assume they finish in that order relative to each other, but clueless as to where they place in relation to the slew of indie tracks I'd not heard that always show up.

Oh yeah, and yeah, and yeah, I forgot YYY's. Earlier in the year I told Chuck that It's Blitz! was a sure P&J top five; for some reason I think it's closer to 5 than to 1, though I have no clue what 2, 3, and 4 will be, especially given that only three other albums were released this year, and the two Dylans will finish lower. As for singles, let's say "Zero" goes top ten and "Heads Will Roll" top twenty, which is the reverse of what should be, but so's the world.

Um, what else? Raekwon alb or single might make top twenty. Or it might not even be top one hundred. That's how well I've sussed out the critical feeling for that one. I assume that rock stuff like Muse has no shot, while KOL might or might not sneak into the forty. The metal band that Moggy likes might also hit the forty. As for country, Miranda Lambert and Rosanne Cash could edge into the forty too, and Brad Paisley won't. I haven't heard the Cash, but she's prestige.

As for what I actually voted for: "Boom Boom Pow" could be anywhere, that combo pizza-taco thing goes top twenty, Lily's It's Not Me, It's You scores in the top ten somewhere, The-Dream's Love Vs. Money I've got no clue about, but I'll say lower end of the forty. Rihanna's Rated R will be somewhere more respectable (say, 25), with Paisley and Electric Red out of the money and everything else miles and miles down the list unless Fearless corrals nine or more votes, which will then automatically combine with last year's and bring it up to about 30th place.

Regarding this community's polling, I think it would be spoilerating for me to divulge a track I voted in the poptimists singles poll until that track has appeared in Tom's countdown (and I recommend that others not divulge theirs as well); but I will say that despite not making my list of twenty, "The Fear" and "Bad Romance" will do well, even though the latter got a relatively tepid welcome on Yet Another Year In Pop. "You Belong With Me" will also do OK but will suffer from not getting enough Brit attention. A track I did vote for whose scoring high would annoy Lex except he's staying away will also do well. And two or three more I listed will place somewhere around 30 thanks to Kat and Chuck and Dave, assuming they vote.

I didn't list "Te Amo" or "Russian Roulette, but I'm curious how they'll do. (I did list another Rihanna, but it's not going to show.)

Comments

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

I think the blog-faves have more clout in P&J these days than the semi- and full-on "professional" faves (of which Dylan is usually reliable but not this year). That means that nothing B-list (even by indie standards) bands like Dirty Projectors and Phoenix and Grizzly Bear will do well. (I'd peg Grizzly Bear and DPs in the top 5, Phoenix in the top 10.)

I'm having a hard time thinking of anything to fill a slot like, e.g., Randy Newman did last year (at #12). And I'm also having a hard time thinking of major hip-hop or R&B releases likely to do well aside from Raekwon and Mos Def, with a possible dark horse in DJ Quik and Kurupt. So it's possible that the top ten, maybe the top twenty, will be almost wall-to-wall cross-section of Pitchfork and NPR.

Otherwise Gaga has a shot at albums but "Fame" versus "Fame Monster" won't help her in points if they don't combine the two; Neko Case is a likely 10-20; Miranda Lambert may do pretty well; Maxwell has a decent shot at the top 20.

Singles-wise, I don't think "You Belong With Me" will crack the top 10 but if it did I'd be pleasantly surprised (it didn't make my top ten). Rihanna won't make waves with her singles from this year, I don't think (well, not strictly true, "Run This Town" should do fine). I got to feeling that "Boom Boom Pow" won't do as well as "Feeling," but I could be crazy.

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

Woops, sentence should be that "nothing B-list (even by indie standards) bands like Dirty Projectors and nothing A-list bands like Phoenix and Grizzly Bear," was intended as a dumb swipe at the Projectors, whom I'm growing to loathe.

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

What's weird is that I liked the "nothing" version of Phoenix on their last album, which made my top 10, and this time around their nothingness really bugs me.

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

Oh, Ghostface may do reasonably well on the albums chart.

[koganbot]

I didn't even realize that there was a Mos Def album this year. I've been picking up on r&b and hip-hop only by way of what you guys are talking about and what comes through the Top 40 and the Jukebox, and a little bit of radio. The only genre that's getting special attention from me is country, a lot by way of Rolling Country. And I'm totally swamped in music and have no time to listen to any more. (I'm also listening to some music of the past, of course, which takes time.)